Thursday, February 3, 2011

Pair Trading - EWG and EWQ

Someone on Phil's Stock World suggested an interesting pair trade - EWG (the iShare Germany Index) and EWQ (the iShare France Index). I ran an analysis using ChaosHunter and found a very strong correlation betweent the 2 indices. But it seems that EWQ is now relatively undervalued compared to EWG.




The model suggests a predicted value for EWQ of over $30 but the ETF currently trades around $26. Here are the stats for the model as reference:




I tested from 2001 on to today, using the first 8 years to optimize and 2010 as an out of sample data set. Here is the graphs for all rows. The correlation is indeed pretty strong.



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