QQQQ Hugging the Support Line

I have programmed new Pivot Point and S/R lines in Amibroker to include the Floor Pivot Points and Woodies Pivot Points. I draw a "cloud" when they don't match exactly which makes thicker lines. They recalculate every day and draw automatically. Today's QQQQ is a good example of how good it could be...

Correlation between Crack Spread and refiners

How do refiner make money? Like everyone else, by selling the final product more expensively than the input product. That margin is called the crack spread and it varies with time. With a high crack spread (like today), they make more money. But eventually, it will reverse to average and that will put pressure on refiners. Below are 2 charts that compare the crack spread performance to VLO and TSO.

The correlation is quite telling! Which means that we should expect weakness with both these stocks as the crack spread reverts to its average.

Pivot Points - 3-8-2011

There are many different calculations done for pivot points and I wanted to compare the results and test it out over a period of time to see who is most accurate. However, many of them seem to converge closely on the same values. Below are some tables with the calculation for indices and AAPL (traded by many). I'll track these over the day.

Combination Screen - 3/5/2011 List

And here is the list generated by the screen after end of day Friday. Once again, ranked by Price-to-Sales ascending. The top 10 are outlined in yellow. These are the ones I will track.

Combination Screen - 3/5/2011 Results

Another decent week for the combination screen. Below are the results for all the current list that I am tracking. I have abandoned the short list until I can find criteria that are more correlated to the stock prices. In addition, the market is a tough one to short now...


1/31/2011 Portfolio


The original list. I kept only the top 10 stocks from the original list in the portfolio for multiple reasons - they perform much better than the entire list (a good reason) and second of all, I can't keep up with 30 to 40 names on all the portfolios. As I outlined when I started, I will rebalance the portfolios every 4 weeks meaning that some stocks will be sold and others added. This time, there was only one survivor - MRO. Here are the results for last week and since inception.

The original list is in yellow, the new one in blue. MRO is in blue only for last week as it is in both lists. Last week, the portfolio was up over 3% compared to 0.16% for the S&P500. Overall, the list is up 9% over the last 5 weeks compared to 3.13% for the broader market. Stocks are up on average 4.74% after I pick them and remember that for 9 of them, it's only for a week. So far, so good!


2/4/2011 Portfolio


This one had a positive week, but not as good as the original list.

Since inception, it is up over 1.5%, doubling the S&P500. Not great, but we'll take it.


2/11/2011 Portfolio


Same story for the following list. This one was created when the S&P500 was making new highs and the broader market is down since then. However, the portfolio is up which I guess is a good sign.

2/18/2011 Portfolio


This next portfolio suffers from the same problem. The S&P500 is down 1.5% since inception is the list is not immune although down only 0.22%.

This list is saved by one big winner though - PC Mall. 


2/25/2011 Portfolio


The latest list created only last week. Since it mirrors almost entirely the first portfolio (I used it to rebalance), the performance match what the first list did last week.

A big week nonetheless.


Overall, a pretty good week for all the lists as they all beat the broader market average. And all also beat over their lifetime. The challenge will be if we hit a correction. I will post an article about cash management based on the Charles Kirkpatrick book.

Another Turning Point for the Dollar

One more dollar chart...

Seems like that first support point is holding! Next stop is way down...

Did we reach a top....

Following up on some weekly chart that I had drawn earlier, it seems that we have hit a major resistance point both in SPY and IWM. The chart below show Fibonacci extensions using the lows of April 2009 and the retracement of April 2010 as bases. Right now, both IWM and SPY sit right below the 61.8% extension. Many books identify that line as the most important Fibonacci level. Breaking through would be bullish. If not, this might be a temporary top.


DIA is lagging, but not far behind....


SPY

IWM

DIA