Another decent week for the combination screen. Below are the results for all the current list that I am tracking. I have abandoned the short list until I can find criteria that are more correlated to the stock prices. In addition, the market is a tough one to short now...
1/31/2011 Portfolio
The original list. I kept only the top 10 stocks from the original list in the portfolio for multiple reasons - they perform much better than the entire list (a good reason) and second of all, I can't keep up with 30 to 40 names on all the portfolios. As I outlined when I started, I will rebalance the portfolios every 4 weeks meaning that some stocks will be sold and others added. This time, there was only one survivor - MRO. Here are the results for last week and since inception.
The original list is in yellow, the new one in blue. MRO is in blue only for last week as it is in both lists. Last week, the portfolio was up over 3% compared to 0.16% for the S&P500. Overall, the list is up 9% over the last 5 weeks compared to 3.13% for the broader market. Stocks are up on average 4.74% after I pick them and remember that for 9 of them, it's only for a week. So far, so good!
2/4/2011 Portfolio
This one had a positive week, but not as good as the original list.
Since inception, it is up over 1.5%, doubling the S&P500. Not great, but we'll take it.
2/11/2011 Portfolio
Same story for the following list. This one was created when the S&P500 was making new highs and the broader market is down since then. However, the portfolio is up which I guess is a good sign.
2/18/2011 Portfolio
This next portfolio suffers from the same problem. The S&P500 is down 1.5% since inception is the list is not immune although down only 0.22%.
This list is saved by one big winner though - PC Mall.
2/25/2011 Portfolio
The latest list created only last week. Since it mirrors almost entirely the first portfolio (I used it to rebalance), the performance match what the first list did last week.
A big week nonetheless.
Overall, a pretty good week for all the lists as they all beat the broader market average. And all also beat over their lifetime. The challenge will be if we hit a correction. I will post an article about cash management based on the Charles Kirkpatrick book.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Did we reach a top....
Following up on some weekly chart that I had drawn earlier, it seems that we have hit a major resistance point both in SPY and IWM. The chart below show Fibonacci extensions using the lows of April 2009 and the retracement of April 2010 as bases. Right now, both IWM and SPY sit right below the 61.8% extension. Many books identify that line as the most important Fibonacci level. Breaking through would be bullish. If not, this might be a temporary top.
DIA is lagging, but not far behind....
SPY
IWM
DIA
DIA is lagging, but not far behind....
SPY
IWM
DIA
Friday, March 4, 2011
Support and Resistance - 3/4/2011 Edition
I posted yesterday about support and resistance level calculated by ShadowTrader on Thinkorswim, and man, his levels are spot on again today (at least on /ES).... Going to make me a believer!
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Support and Resistance
My current broker Thinkorswim has a MyTrade feature that is pretty cool and lets you go over comments from other traders during the day. Just like Twitter, you can follow other traders during the day. One of them (ShadowTrader) publishes his support and resistance points every day. Today, his line on /ES were almost spot on. Have a look!
And his lines for DIA, SPY, IWM and QQQQ (in that order) were not bad either.
And his lines for DIA, SPY, IWM and QQQQ (in that order) were not bad either.
What Inflation?
Inflation, what inflation? Natural gas is down over 38% the last 12 months. That doesn't count for anything? The rest of the commodities are barely making up for it!
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Fat Fingers in the Chocolate!
Talk about fat fingers. Look at the Cocoa futures chart yesterday.
Futures go down close to $500 in 15 minutes and back up $400 in the next 15 minutes! At $10 a point, a costly or profitable 30 minutes. I am sure the CFTC will be investigating! Oh wait, they are being defunded by Congress...
Futures go down close to $500 in 15 minutes and back up $400 in the next 15 minutes! At $10 a point, a costly or profitable 30 minutes. I am sure the CFTC will be investigating! Oh wait, they are being defunded by Congress...
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